What would happen if one of China's biggest manufacturing bases, Guangzhou, put a cap on the number of migrant workers allowed to live and work in its factories? That might soon happen. With few exceptions, people from these areas of Guangxi and Guizhou Provinces swarm to Guangzhou looking for work and opportunity.
It would most certainly affect Guangzhou businesses, factories, and, I would imagine, the pricing of entire industries worldwide (considering the amazing number of products produced there). Not being so suiting to speak to such high and glorious issues, I will focus my thoughts on the effects such a move would have on the migrants themselves and their home economies.
This issue brings up a comment from a local Chinese friend of mine a few days ago. He outfits the electronic wiring in many of the buildings going up in our little town, and I figured he would have a good idea of how much longer he thought he would have business. So, I asked him how much longer he thought the fast-paced construction would continue in our little town. He said five or six years. I really only thought two or three, but I will assume he has a better grasp on the situation.
That really made me think. With our little town, and all of China, so geared toward construction these few years, how will towns and cities change as that building workforce changes occupations? And more specifically related to the possible changes in Guangzhou, as rules such as this are put into effect and also as the Chinese Yuan continues to value, China's products will become more expensive, and more and more factories will not have work to provide.
The first report I saw about Guangzhou's possible regulation on the number of migrant workers came from the BBC. Unfortunately, I cannot draw from the entire article due to "access issues" that will not allow me to bring up their site, so I have to trust Google for the link just above.
However, China Daily's online article about Guangzhou's possible curb of migrant workers did have some interesting numbers to offer. It states that Guangzhou already has more than five million migrant workers. The move to limit that number is primarily due to crime, much of which is committed by the migrant population.
With all these things happening in the next few years, big changes could be in store for the rural economies of the areas from which those migrant workers come. It is hard to say what will happen to the migrant workers who are already in the city, but certainly, it will limit the numbers of those who leave the area in the first place.
Local economies can support them for now, because of all the construction even in rural towns, but what is the next step for the Chinese workforce? The biggest rural resource, and indeed China's biggest resource, is the people.
If anybody can confirm that my BBC link above does link to their story on the possible curb on migrant workers in Guangzhou, I would be grateful. I would like to make sure that is both a site that does not require some BBC subscription and also that it is the story discussed here.
Posted by: Cooper Strange | 9 Jan 2007 at 15:08